Red Bull Salzburg vs Sparta Praha — Friendlies Clubs 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 11+ matches
Red Bull Salzburg39%
Sparta Praha40%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 26 home / 11 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over73
- Under27
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes72
- No28
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Red Bull Salzburg ↓
Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches
Sparta Praha away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.96 + Sparta Praha defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.89
Sparta Praha attack 2.09 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.91
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Sparta Praha at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Red Bull Salzburg host Sparta Praha on Monday, 16 January 2023 at 00:00. The match is part of the Friendlies Clubs 2026/2027 season.
Friendlies Clubs: Red Bull Salzburg 2–1 Sparta Praha
Red Bull Salzburg beat Sparta Praha 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 16, 2023.
Goals: S. Koita (1'), L. Haraslin (45+2'), J. Adamu (50').
The match was played at Marbella Football Center - Sur 2 in San Pedro de Alcántara.