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Sparta Praha vs Opava — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sparta Praha
Sparta Praha
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Opava
Opava
L. Julis 79'
T. Wiesner 38'
F. Soucek 35'
6/30/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TC Strahov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sparta Praha76%
×Draw15%
Opava10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Praha
2.75
Opava
0.90

Sparta Praha creates 206% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sparta Praha
3.64
Opava
1.15

allows per match

Sparta Praha
0.64
Opava
1.85

finishing

Sparta Praha+0.00on par
Opava+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha ↓

Opava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Sparta Praha or draw
90%
Sparta Praha or Opava
85%
Draw or Opava
24%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha wins by 2+
55%
Opava wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sparta Praha 1+ goals
93%
Sparta Praha 2+ goals
75%
Sparta Praha 3+ goals
51%
Opava 1+ goals
59%
Opava 2+ goals
23%
Opava 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha (draw refunded)
88%
Opava (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha at home — creates 3.64, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Opava away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha attack 3.64 + Opava defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.75

Opava attack 1.15 + Sparta Praha defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Sparta Praha scores more
76%
level
15%
Opava scores more
10%

Sparta Praha at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
F. Soucek
38'
T. Wiesner↳ C. Hojer
46'
D. Dolechek← D. Dolechek
46'
A. Dostal← A. Dostal
46'
T. Rataj← D. Kramar
46'
K. Lasak← S. Sigut
46'
B. Pikul← B. Pikul
46'
D. Machacek← D. Machacek
46'
M. Helebrand← A. Rychly
46'
Z. Celta← Z. Celta
46'
M. Kopecny← M. Kopecny
46'
M. Bilek← L. Ciz
46'
D. Holec← M. Heca
46'
T. Cvancara← L. Julis
46'
M. Vitik← P. Vydra
46'
D. Hancko← J. Zeleny
46'
C. Hojer← M. Hanousek
46'
J. Pesek← J. Mejdr
46'
A. Karabec← M. Sacek
46'
F. Soucek← J. Fortelny
46'
L. Sadilek← K. Danek
79'
L. Julis↳ M. Hanousek

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sparta Praha vs Opava

Sparta Praha beat Opava 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on June 30, 2022.

Goals: F. Soucek (35'), T. Wiesner (38'), L. Julis (79').

The match was played at TC Strahov in Praha.