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Opava vs Sparta Praha — Czech Liga 2019

Opava
Opava
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Sparta Praha
Sparta Praha
1/20/2021Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 13Stadion v Městských sadech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Opava20%
×Draw25%
Sparta Praha55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Opava
0.88
Sparta Praha
1.63

Sparta Praha creates 85% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 119 away

creates per match

Opava
0.66
Sparta Praha
1.82

allows per match

Opava
1.43
Sparta Praha
1.09

finishing

Opava+0.00on par
Sparta Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opava ↓

Sparta Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Opava or draw
45%
Opava or Sparta Praha
75%
Draw or Sparta Praha
80%

Winning margin

Opava wins by 2+
7%
Sparta Praha wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Opava 1+ goals
59%
Opava 2+ goals
22%
Opava 3+ goals
6%
Sparta Praha 1+ goals
80%
Sparta Praha 2+ goals
48%
Sparta Praha 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Opava (draw refunded)
27%
Sparta Praha (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opava at home — creates 0.66, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

Sparta Praha away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.09 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opava attack 0.66 + Sparta Praha defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.88

Sparta Praha attack 1.82 + Opava defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Opava scores more
20%
level
25%
Sparta Praha scores more
55%

Sparta Praha at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Opava 0–3 Sparta Praha

Sparta Praha beat Opava 3-0 in Czech Liga on January 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion v Městských sadech in Opava.