Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sparta Praha vs Opava — Czech Liga 2019

Sparta Praha
Sparta Praha
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Opava
Opava
4/25/2021Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 29Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Sparta Praha70%
×Draw18%
Opava12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Praha
2.26
Opava
0.81

Sparta Praha creates 179% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 35 away

creates per match

Sparta Praha
2.32
Opava
0.54

allows per match

Sparta Praha
1.08
Opava
2.20

finishing

Sparta Praha+0.00on par
Opava+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha ↓

Opava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sparta Praha or draw
88%
Sparta Praha or Opava
82%
Draw or Opava
30%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha wins by 2+
46%
Opava wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sparta Praha 1+ goals
89%
Sparta Praha 2+ goals
66%
Sparta Praha 3+ goals
39%
Opava 1+ goals
56%
Opava 2+ goals
19%
Opava 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha (draw refunded)
85%
Opava (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.08 · 124 matches

Opava away — creates 0.54, concedes 2.20 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha attack 2.32 + Opava defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.26

Opava attack 0.54 + Sparta Praha defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Sparta Praha scores more
70%
level
18%
Opava scores more
12%

Sparta Praha at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Sparta Praha 4–2 Opava

Sparta Praha beat Opava 4-2 in Czech Liga on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena in Praha.