Sparta Praha II 2–5 Dukla Praha: Result & Stats

Sparta Praha II

FT

2 – 5

HT: 2 – 0

Dukla Praha

1/28/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TC Strahov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sparta Praha II38%

×Draw21%

Dukla Praha41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta Praha IIExpected goals in this matchDukla Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

2.04

Sparta Praha II

1.96

Dukla Praha

2.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 17 away

1.86

creates per match

1.94

2.14

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Sparta Praha II

1.86

Dukla Praha

1.94

allows per match

Sparta Praha II

2.14

Dukla Praha

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sparta Praha II+0.00on par

Dukla Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha II ↓

Dukla Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Sparta Praha II or draw

59%

Sparta Praha II or Dukla Praha

79%

Draw or Dukla Praha

62%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha II wins by 2+

20%

Dukla Praha wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Sparta Praha II 1+ goals

86%

Sparta Praha II 2+ goals

58%

Sparta Praha II 3+ goals

31%

Dukla Praha 1+ goals

87%

Dukla Praha 2+ goals

60%

Dukla Praha 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha II (draw refunded)

48%

Dukla Praha (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Dukla Praha away — creates 1.94, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha II attack 1.86 + Dukla Praha defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.96

Dukla Praha attack 1.94 + Sparta Praha II defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sparta Praha II scores more

38%

level

21%

Dukla Praha scores more

41%

Dukla Praha at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dukla Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sparta Praha II vs Dukla Praha

Dukla Praha beat Sparta Praha II 5-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 28, 2023.

The match was played at TC Strahov in Praha.

Sparta Praha II vs Dukla Praha — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sparta Praha II vs Dukla Praha