Dukla Praha vs Sparta Praha II — FNL 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 73+ matches
Dukla Praha54%
Sparta Praha II23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Dukla Praha creates 64% more chances
Season form · 73 home / 75 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over58
- Under42
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes57
- No43
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Dukla Praha ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Dukla Praha at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.12 · 73 matches
Sparta Praha II away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.81 · 75 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Dukla Praha attack 1.93 + Sparta Praha II defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.87
Sparta Praha II attack 1.15 + Dukla Praha defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.14
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
Dukla Praha at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "Dukla Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Zbrojovka Brno
Táborsko
Artis
Ústí nad Labem
Baník Ostrava II
Příbram
Opava
Viktoria Žižkov
Vlašim
Slavia Praha II
Chrudim
Hanácká
České Budějovice
Prostějov
Vysočina JihlavaSparta Praha IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Dukla Praha host Sparta Praha II on Saturday, 25 May 2024 at 15:00. The match is part of the FNL 2019/2020 season.
Dukla Praha 6 – 0 Sparta Praha II
Dukla Praha beat Sparta Praha II 6-0 in FNL on May 25, 2024.
Goals: R. Šiler (23' o.g.), L. Matějka (45'), O. Ullman (62', 90+1'), J. Zeronik (82'), P. Moulis (83').
The match was played at Stadion Juliska in Praha.