Dukla Praha 4–2 Sparta Praha II: Result & Stats

Dukla Praha

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Sparta Praha II

7/11/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dukla Praha66%

×Draw19%

Sparta Praha II16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dukla PrahaExpected goals in this matchSparta Praha II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.06

Dukla Praha

2.35

Sparta Praha II

1.06

Dukla Praha creates 122% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

2.56

creates per match

1.00

1.11

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Dukla Praha

2.56

Sparta Praha II

1.00

allows per match

Dukla Praha

1.11

Sparta Praha II

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dukla Praha+0.00on par

Sparta Praha II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Praha ↓

Sparta Praha II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Dukla Praha or draw

84%

Dukla Praha or Sparta Praha II

81%

Draw or Sparta Praha II

34%

Winning margin

Dukla Praha wins by 2+

43%

Sparta Praha II wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dukla Praha 1+ goals

90%

Dukla Praha 2+ goals

68%

Dukla Praha 3+ goals

41%

Sparta Praha II 1+ goals

65%

Sparta Praha II 2+ goals

29%

Sparta Praha II 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dukla Praha (draw refunded)

81%

Sparta Praha II (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Praha at home — creates 2.56, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Sparta Praha II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Praha attack 2.56 + Sparta Praha II defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.35

Sparta Praha II attack 1.00 + Dukla Praha defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Dukla Praha scores more

66%

level

19%

Sparta Praha II scores more

16%

Dukla Praha at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Dukla Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Dukla

Sparta

Manager: Pavel Sustr

Dukla Praha substitutes

KostkaGaszczykKroupaAmblerKozojedHasekZitnyDialloKreikerZarateRotundoBasta

Manager: Lubos Loucka

Sparta Praha II substitutes

FrancDivisVodolanPanakFeitBolorboldKotisekPavlikKaczmarekPavloPesekNegouai