Southampton 1–4 Tottenham: Result & Stats

Southampton

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Tottenham

V. van Dijk 2'

D. Alli 87', 19'

Heung-Min Son 85'

H. Kane 52'

12/28/2016

Premier League · Round 18St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Southampton33%

×Draw24%

Tottenham44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.67

Southampton

1.41

Tottenham

1.67

Tottenham creates 18% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 37 away

1.19

creates per match

1.17

2.17

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Southampton

1.19

Tottenham

1.17

allows per match

Southampton

2.17

Tottenham

1.62

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Southampton+0.19scores more

Tottenham+0.29scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

56%

Southampton or Tottenham

76%

Draw or Tottenham

67%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

15%

Tottenham wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

76%

Southampton 2+ goals

41%

Southampton 3+ goals

17%

Tottenham 1+ goals

81%

Tottenham 2+ goals

50%

Tottenham 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

43%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.17 · 8 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.19 + Tottenham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.41

Tottenham attack 1.17 + Southampton defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Southampton scores more

33%

level

24%

Tottenham scores more

44%

Tottenham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

D. Alli

Tottenham · M

8.4

Match Events

2'

V. van Dijk↳ J. Ward-Prowse

15'

19'

52'

55'

57'

60'

72'

S. Long← J. Rodriguez

72'

D. Tadić← S. Boufal

72'

P. Højbjerg← S. Davis

74'

Heung-Min Son← M. Sissoko

82'

H. Winks← M. Dembélé

85'

Heung-Min Son

87'

D. Alli↳ D. Rose

89'

V. Janssen← H. Kane

90'

Shane Long

90'

Jan Vertonghen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthamptonTottenham

Overview

34%Possession66%

9Total Shots17

2Corners10

7Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots17

2On Target5

3Off Target7

4Blocked5

5Inside Box10

4Outside Box7

Passing

34%Possession66%

319Total Passes622

221Accurate Passes521

69%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls16

1Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0