Southampton 2–1 QPR: Result & Stats | Championship

Southampton

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

QPR

A. Armstrong 64'

S. Edozie 30'

J. Colback 32'

8/26/2023

Championship · Round 4St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Southampton47%

×Draw28%

QPR25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchQPR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.91

Southampton

1.36

QPR

0.91

Southampton creates 49% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 19 away

1.45

creates per match

0.81

1.00

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Southampton

1.45

QPR

0.81

allows per match

Southampton

1.00

QPR

1.28

-0.02on par

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

Southampton-0.02on par

QPR+0.24scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

QPR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

75%

Southampton or QPR

72%

Draw or QPR

53%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

22%

QPR wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

74%

Southampton 2+ goals

39%

Southampton 3+ goals

16%

QPR 1+ goals

60%

QPR 2+ goals

23%

QPR 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

65%

QPR (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

QPR away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.28 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.45 + QPR defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.36

QPR attack 0.81 + Southampton defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Southampton scores more

47%

level

28%

QPR scores more

25%

Southampton at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

R. Manning

Southampton · D

8.2

Match Events

11'

Ryan Manning

19'

Stuart Armstrong

25'

F. Downes← J. Stephens

29'

Carlos Alcaraz

30'

S. Edozie↳ R. Manning

32'

J. Colback

56'

S. Mara← C. Alcaraz

56'

R. Fraser← S. Amo-Ameyaw

64'

A. Armstrong↳ R. Manning

74'

S. Duke-McKenna← J. Colback

74'

82'

83'

88'

89'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthamptonQPR

Overview

74%Possession26%

7Total Shots11

0.42Expected Goals (xG)0.64

4Corners3

8Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots11

3On Target5

1Off Target3

3Blocked3

4Inside Box8

3Outside Box3

Passing

74%Possession26%

786Total Passes263

727Accurate Passes190

92%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls14

4Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3

Championship: Southampton 2–1 QPR

Southampton beat QPR 2-1 in Championship on August 26, 2023.

Goals: S. Edozie (30'), J. Colback (32'), A. Armstrong (64').

Southampton controlled possession (74%) and registered 7 shots to 11.

The match was played at St. Mary's Stadium in Southampton, Hampshire.

Southampton vs QPR — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Southampton 2–1 QPR