Southampton 2–1 QPR: Result & Stats

Southampton

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

QPR

G. Pellè 68'

R. Bertrand 54'

C. Austin 66'

9/27/2014

Premier League · Round 6St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton, Hampshire)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Southampton53%

×Draw23%

QPR24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchQPR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.15

Southampton

1.81

QPR

1.15

Southampton creates 57% more chances

Season form · 169 home / 24 away

1.34

creates per match

0.92

1.37

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Southampton

1.34

QPR

0.92

allows per match

Southampton

1.37

QPR

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southampton+0.00on par

QPR+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

QPR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

76%

Southampton or QPR

77%

Draw or QPR

47%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

29%

QPR wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

84%

Southampton 2+ goals

54%

Southampton 3+ goals

27%

QPR 1+ goals

68%

QPR 2+ goals

32%

QPR 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

69%

QPR (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.37 · 169 matches

QPR away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.29 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.34 + QPR defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.81

QPR attack 0.92 + Southampton defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Southampton scores more

53%

level

23%

QPR scores more

24%

Southampton at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

K. Henry← Sandro

54'

R. Bertrand↳ S. Mané

58'

J. Hoilett← M. Phillips

66'

C. Austin↳ E. Vargas

68'

S. Long← S. Mané

68'

69'

77'

90+1'

Southampton

QPR

1

5

3

4

19

14

10

7

▼

Phillips

30

▼

Sandro

24

A

▼

Vargas

9

⚽

Austin

23

Forster

6

Fonte

21

⚽

2

17

8

4

11

A

▼

Tadić

12

▼

Wanyama

10

A

▼

Mané

19

⚽

Pellè

68'▲S. Long←▼S. Mané

69'▲J. Cork←▼V. Wanyama

90+1'▲M. Targett←▼D. Tadić

Southampton substitutes

7Long18Cork33Targett1Davis24Mayuka28Reed32McCarthy

11'▲K. Henry←▼Sandro

58'▲J. Hoilett←▼M. Phillips

77'▲B. Zamora←▼E. Vargas

QPR substitutes

20Henry23Hoilett25Zamora6Hill12McCarthy15Onuoha22Dunne