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QPR vs Southampton — Championship 2025

QPR
QPR
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Southampton
Southampton
R. Burrell 73'
L. Scienza 69'
J. Robinson 55'
11/5/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 14Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

QPR41%
×Draw26%
Southampton33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.39
Southampton
1.22

QPR creates 14% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 17 away

creates per match

QPR
1.34
Southampton
1.32

allows per match

QPR
1.11
Southampton
1.44

finishing

QPR-0.06on par
Southampton+0.09on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Southampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

QPR or draw
67%
QPR or Southampton
74%
Draw or Southampton
59%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
19%
Southampton wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
75%
QPR 2+ goals
40%
QPR 3+ goals
16%
Southampton 1+ goals
70%
Southampton 2+ goals
34%
Southampton 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
55%
Southampton (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.11 · 25 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.44 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.34 + Southampton defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Southampton attack 1.32 + QPR defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

QPR scores more
41%
level
26%
Southampton scores more
33%

QPR at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
L. ScienzaSouthamptonSouthampton · F
8.9

Match Events

38'
Nicolas Madsen
55'
J. Robinson↳ A. Armstrong
63'
K. Dembele← P. Smyth
66'
F. Azaz← J. Robinson
66'
D. Downs← A. Armstrong
69'
L. Scienza↳ F. Azaz
70'
R. Kone← K. Saito
72'
M. Roerslev Rasmussen← T. Fellows
72'
J. Aribo← L. Scienza
73'
R. Burrell↳ J. Varane
79'
Caspar Jander
81'
Flynn Downes
82'
Nathan Wood
86'
S. Field← L. Morrison
86'
K. Morgan← J. Varane

Possession

61%QPR

Shots

18QPR

Pass accuracy

51%QPR

Statistics

QPRSouthampton
Overview
61%Possession39%
18Total Shots9
1.65Expected Goals (xG)0.68
12Corners1
12Fouls14
Shots
18Total Shots9
5On Target2
6Off Target4
7Blocked3
14Inside Box5
4Outside Box4
Passing
61%Possession39%
494Total Passes342
416Accurate Passes280
84%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
0.59Goals Prevented0.59
Discipline
12Fouls14
1Yellow Cards3
0Offsides1

Championship: QPR 1–2 Southampton

Southampton beat QPR 2-1 in Championship on November 5, 2025.

Goals: J. Robinson (55'), L. Scienza (69'), R. Burrell (73').

QPR controlled possession (61%) and registered 18 shots to 9.

The match was played at Loftus Road in London.