Southampton 2–1 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Southampton

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Chelsea

A. Armstrong 45+1'

R. Lavia 28'

R. Sterling 23'

8/30/2022

Premier League · Round 5St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Southampton28%

×Draw23%

Chelsea49%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.83

Southampton

1.34

Chelsea

1.83

Chelsea creates 37% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 35 away

1.19

creates per match

1.49

2.17

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Southampton

1.19

Chelsea

1.49

allows per match

Southampton

2.17

Chelsea

1.49

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Southampton+0.19scores more

Chelsea-0.06on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

51%

Southampton or Chelsea

77%

Draw or Chelsea

72%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

12%

Chelsea wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

74%

Southampton 2+ goals

39%

Southampton 3+ goals

15%

Chelsea 1+ goals

84%

Chelsea 2+ goals

54%

Chelsea 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

37%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.17 · 8 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.49 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.19 + Chelsea defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.34

Chelsea attack 1.49 + Southampton defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Southampton scores more

28%

level

23%

Chelsea scores more

49%

Chelsea at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

M. Elyounoussi

Southampton · M

7.7

Match Events

23'

R. Sterling

28'

R. Lavia

45+1'

A. Armstrong↳ R. Perraud

46'

M. Kovačić← R. Loftus-Cheek

53'

Mohammed Salisu

60'

J. Aribo← R. Lavia

64'

James Ward-Prowse

66'

C. Pulišić← K. Havertz

66'

B. Chilwell← Jorginho

66'

A. Broja← César Azpilicueta

73'

M. Djenepo← R. Perraud

80'

Christian Pulišić

86'

Lyanco← A. Armstrong

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthamptonChelsea

Overview

32%Possession68%

9Total Shots10

5Corners3

15Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots10

7On Target4

0Off Target2

2Blocked4

4Inside Box8

5Outside Box2

Passing

32%Possession68%

259Total Passes561

158Accurate Passes460

61%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3