Chelsea 0–1 Southampton: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Southampton

J. Ward-Prowse 45+1'

2/18/2023

Premier League · Round 24Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Chelsea54%

×Draw23%

Southampton23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.13

Chelsea

1.85

Southampton

1.13

Chelsea creates 64% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 5 away

1.86

creates per match

0.98

1.28

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Chelsea

1.86

Southampton

0.98

allows per match

Chelsea

1.28

Southampton

1.83

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Chelsea-0.42scores less

Southampton-0.18scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

77%

Chelsea or Southampton

77%

Draw or Southampton

46%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

31%

Southampton wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

84%

Chelsea 2+ goals

55%

Chelsea 3+ goals

28%

Southampton 1+ goals

68%

Southampton 2+ goals

31%

Southampton 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

70%

Southampton (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

Southampton away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.83 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.86 + Southampton defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.85

Southampton attack 0.98 + Chelsea defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Chelsea scores more

54%

level

23%

Southampton scores more

23%

Chelsea at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Ward-Prowse

Southampton · M

8.2

Match Events

-5'

4'

16'

45+5'

45+1'

46'

R. Sterling← D. Fofana

46'

W. Fofana← K. Koulibaly

59'

S. Mara← P. Onuachu

59'

A. Armstrong← K. Sulemana

59'

T. Walcott← S. Armstrong

64'

K. Havertz← M. Mount

64'

M. Mudryk← N. Madueke

75'

Sékou Mara

84'

C. Gallagher← B. Chilwell

84'

T. Chalobah← César Azpilicueta

87'

Kepa Arrizabalaga

87'

I. Diallo← R. Lavia

87'

C. Alcaraz← M. Elyounoussi

90+7'

Mateo Kovačić

90+8'

Romain Perraud

90+7'

James Ward-Prowse

90+5'

Lyanco← A. Maitland-Niles

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaSouthampton

Overview

61%Possession39%

17Total Shots8

1.62Expected Goals (xG)0.60

8Corners2

16Fouls25

Shots

17Total Shots8

5On Target5

5Off Target3

7Blocked0

10Inside Box4

7Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

504Total Passes320

433Accurate Passes241

86%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls25

3Yellow Cards6

3Offsides1