Southampton 0–6 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Southampton

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 4

Chelsea

M. Mount 54', 16'

T. Werner 49', 22'

K. Havertz 31'

Marcos Alonso 8'

4/9/2022

Premier League · Round 32St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Southampton27%

×Draw23%

Chelsea50%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.82

Southampton

1.29

Chelsea

1.82

Chelsea creates 41% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 33 away

1.13

creates per match

1.51

2.13

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Southampton

1.13

Chelsea

1.51

allows per match

Southampton

2.13

Chelsea

1.45

+0.37scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Southampton+0.37scores more

Chelsea-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

50%

Southampton or Chelsea

77%

Draw or Chelsea

73%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

11%

Chelsea wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

72%

Southampton 2+ goals

37%

Southampton 3+ goals

14%

Chelsea 1+ goals

84%

Chelsea 2+ goals

54%

Chelsea 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

35%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 6 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.45 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.13 + Chelsea defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Chelsea attack 1.51 + Southampton defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Southampton scores more

27%

level

23%

Chelsea scores more

50%

Chelsea at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

M. Mount

Chelsea · F

9.7

Match Events

8'

Marcos Alonso↳ M. Mount

16'

M. Mount

22'

T. Werner

31'

K. Havertz

36'

Y. Valery← Oriol Romeu

46'

I. Diallo← A. Armstrong

46'

C. Pulisic← K. Havertz

49'

T. Werner

54'

M. Mount

60'

Jan Bednarek

63'

R. James← Thiago Silva

69'

H. Ziyech← M. Mount

73'

W. Smallbone← V. Livramento

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthamptonChelsea

Overview

29%Possession71%

4Total Shots24

2Corners3

11Fouls10

Shots

4Total Shots24

1On Target14

0Off Target8

3Blocked2

2Inside Box18

2Outside Box6

Passing

29%Possession71%

292Total Passes748

218Accurate Passes662

75%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

8Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls10

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1