Southampton 1–1 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Southampton

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Chelsea

S. Mané 17'

E. Hazard 45+1'

12/28/2014

Premier League · Round 19St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton, Hampshire)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Southampton27%

×Draw23%

Chelsea50%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.83

Southampton

1.30

Chelsea

1.83

Chelsea creates 41% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 32 away

1.13

creates per match

1.54

2.13

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Southampton

1.13

Chelsea

1.54

allows per match

Southampton

2.13

Chelsea

1.47

+0.37scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Southampton+0.37scores more

Chelsea-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

50%

Southampton or Chelsea

77%

Draw or Chelsea

73%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

12%

Chelsea wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

73%

Southampton 2+ goals

37%

Southampton 3+ goals

14%

Chelsea 1+ goals

84%

Chelsea 2+ goals

54%

Chelsea 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

35%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 6 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.47 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.13 + Chelsea defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Chelsea attack 1.54 + Southampton defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Southampton scores more

27%

level

23%

Chelsea scores more

50%

Chelsea at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

S. Mané↳ D. Tadić

45+1'

E. Hazard↳ Fàbregas

46'

Willian← A. Schürrle

58'

J. Ward-Prowse← D. Tadić

62'

F. Gardoş← M. Yoshida

74'

D. Drogba← J. Obi Mikel

77'

S. Long← S. Davis

89'

L. Rémy← Diego Costa

Southampton

Chelsea

13

26

24

3

2

4

A

Fàbregas

12

▼

Mikel

21

Matić

10

⚽

Hazard

19

▼

Costa

14

▼

Schürrle

23

Forster

3

▼

6

17

33

8

▼

Davis

4

Schneider

11

A

▼

Tadić

12

Wanyama

10

⚽

Mané

19

Pellè

58'▲J. Ward-Prowse←▼D. Tadić

62'▲F. Gardoş←▼M. Yoshida

77'▲S. Long←▼S. Davis

Southampton substitutes

16Ward-Prowse5Gardoş7Long1Davis27Isgrove28Reed32McCarthy

46'▲Willian←▼A. Schürrle

74'▲D. Drogba←▼J. Obi Mikel

89'▲L. Rémy←▼Diego Costa

Chelsea substitutes

22Willian11Drogba18Rémy1Čech5Zouma7Ramires28Azpilicueta