Southampton 2–0 Cardiff: Result & Stats

Southampton

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Cardiff

A. Armstrong 15', 11'

12/2/2023

Championship · Round 19St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Southampton56%

×Draw26%

Cardiff18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.74

Southampton

1.53

Cardiff

0.74

Southampton creates 107% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 21 away

1.74

creates per match

0.69

0.80

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Southampton

1.74

Cardiff

0.69

allows per match

Southampton

0.80

Cardiff

1.32

-0.49scores less than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Southampton-0.49scores less

Cardiff+0.12scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

82%

Southampton or Cardiff

74%

Draw or Cardiff

44%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

29%

Cardiff wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

78%

Southampton 2+ goals

45%

Southampton 3+ goals

20%

Cardiff 1+ goals

52%

Cardiff 2+ goals

17%

Cardiff 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

76%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.80 · 8 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.32 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.74 + Cardiff defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.53

Cardiff attack 0.69 + Southampton defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Southampton scores more

56%

level

26%

Cardiff scores more

18%

Southampton at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Armstrong

Southampton · M

8.3

Match Events

11'

A. Armstrong↳ C. Alcaraz

15'

A. Armstrong

25'

Flynn Downes

55'

R. Colwill← C. Robinson

62'

J. Aribo← S. Armstrong

62'

O. Tanner← J. Bowler

63'

R. Fraser← C. Alcaraz

63'

I. Ugbo← Y. Meïté

72'

Rubin Colwill

75'

K. Etete← K. Ahearne-Grant

75'

J. Ralls← M. Siopis

81'

S. Mara← C. Adams

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthamptonCardiff

Overview

64%Possession36%

18Total Shots10

2.68Expected Goals (xG)1.03

7Corners3

6Fouls9

Shots

18Total Shots10

6On Target3

7Off Target2

5Blocked5

11Inside Box4

7Outside Box6

Passing

64%Possession36%

720Total Passes402

653Accurate Passes341

91%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

6Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1