Southampton 1–2 Cardiff: Result & Stats

Southampton

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Cardiff

J. Stephens 90+1'

K. Zohorè 90+3'

S. Bamba 69'

2/9/2019

Premier League · Round 26St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Southampton50%

×Draw25%

Cardiff25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.01

Southampton

1.56

Cardiff

1.01

Southampton creates 54% more chances

Season form · 173 home / 23 away

1.35

creates per match

0.65

1.36

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Southampton

1.35

Cardiff

0.65

allows per match

Southampton

1.36

Cardiff

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southampton+0.00on par

Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

75%

Southampton or Cardiff

75%

Draw or Cardiff

50%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

26%

Cardiff wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

79%

Southampton 2+ goals

46%

Southampton 3+ goals

21%

Cardiff 1+ goals

64%

Cardiff 2+ goals

27%

Cardiff 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

67%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.36 · 173 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.35 + Cardiff defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.56

Cardiff attack 0.65 + Southampton defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Southampton scores more

50%

level

25%

Cardiff scores more

25%

Southampton at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

N. Etheridge

Cardiff · G

7.4

Match Events

45'

James Ward-Prowse

61'

Aron Gunnarsson

62'

L. Bacuna← A. Gunnarsson

62'

K. Zohorè← B. Reid

69'

S. Bamba↳ C. Paterson

70'

Sol Bamba

72'

C. Austin← S. Long

72'

M. Elyounoussi← J. Vestergaard

83'

S. Gallagher← Y. Valery

83'

Víctor Camarasa← O. Niasse

89'

Nathan Redmond

90'

Oriol Romeu

90'

Kenneth Zohore

90+1'

J. Stephens↳ C. Austin

90+3'

K. Zohorè↳ Víctor Camarasa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthamptonCardiff

Overview

66%Possession34%

14Total Shots6

8Corners2

15Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots6

7On Target3

5Off Target3

2Blocked0

10Inside Box4

4Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

539Total Passes267

428Accurate Passes156

79%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3