Cardiff 2–1 Southampton: Result & Stats

Cardiff

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Southampton

C. Ashford 90+6'

F. Diédhiou 68'

J. Aribo 12'

4/20/2024

Championship · Round 44Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Cardiff31%

×Draw26%

Southampton43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardiffExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.46

Cardiff

1.21

Southampton

1.46

Southampton creates 21% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 9 away

1.05

creates per match

1.63

1.30

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Cardiff

1.05

Southampton

1.63

allows per match

Cardiff

1.30

Southampton

1.37

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Cardiff-0.42scores less

Southampton+0.15scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

57%

Cardiff or Southampton

74%

Draw or Southampton

69%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+

13%

Southampton wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals

70%

Cardiff 2+ goals

34%

Cardiff 3+ goals

12%

Southampton 1+ goals

77%

Southampton 2+ goals

43%

Southampton 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)

42%

Southampton (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.30 · 19 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.37 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.05 + Southampton defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.21

Southampton attack 1.63 + Cardiff defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cardiff scores more

31%

level

26%

Southampton scores more

43%

Southampton at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

E. Horvath

Cardiff · G

8.2

Match Events

12'

J. Aribo

43'

Stuart Armstrong

46'

J. Bree← R. Manning

61'

F. Diédhiou← D. Turnbull

65'

R. Conte← M. Romeo

68'

F. Diédhiou↳ Y. Meïté

73'

J. Rothwell← J. Aribo

77'

L. Giles← O. Tanner

80'

K. Sulemana← A. Armstrong

80'

S. Edozie← W. Smallbone

80'

81'

82'

90+1'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CardiffSouthampton

Overview

38%Possession62%

12Total Shots21

1.78Expected Goals (xG)2.05

4Corners5

12Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots21

7On Target8

3Off Target7

2Blocked6

7Inside Box18

5Outside Box3

Passing

38%Possession62%

364Total Passes616

301Accurate Passes548

83%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

7Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls8

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2