Southampton 0–5 Brentford: Result & Stats

Southampton

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Brentford

Y. Wissa 90+4'

K. Lewis-Potter 90+2'

B. Mbeumo 69' (pen), 62'

K. Schade 6'

1/4/2025

Premier League · Round 20St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Southampton27%

×Draw24%

Brentford49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchBrentford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.72

Southampton

1.21

Brentford

1.72

Brentford creates 42% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 38 away

0.94

creates per match

1.27

2.17

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Southampton

0.94

Brentford

1.27

allows per match

Southampton

2.17

Brentford

1.48

-0.01on par

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Southampton-0.01on par

Brentford+0.07on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Brentford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

51%

Southampton or Brentford

76%

Draw or Brentford

73%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

11%

Brentford wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

70%

Southampton 2+ goals

34%

Southampton 3+ goals

12%

Brentford 1+ goals

82%

Brentford 2+ goals

51%

Brentford 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

35%

Brentford (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 0.94, concedes 2.17 · 14 matches

Brentford away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.48 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 0.94 + Brentford defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.21

Brentford attack 1.27 + Southampton defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Southampton scores more

27%

level

24%

Brentford scores more

49%

Brentford at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

B. Mbeumo

Brentford · F

10.0

Match Events

6'

K. Schade↳ M. Damsgaard

22'

Kyle Walker-Peters

46'

Y. Sugawara← J. Bree

46'

C. Taylor← N. Wood-Gordon

54'

Sepp van den BergGoal cancelled

55'

C. Archer← K. Sulemana

55'

A. Armstrong← P. Onuachu

62'

B. Mbeumo↳ Y. Wissa

64'

Taylor Harwood-Bellis

69'

B. MbeumoPenalty

71'

V. Janelt← M. Jensen

81'

P. Maghoma← K. Schade

81'

Y. Yarmoliuk← C. Nørgaard

87'

A. Lallana← J. Aribo

90+2'

K. Lewis-Potter↳ B. Mbeumo

90+4'

Y. Wissa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthamptonBrentford

Overview

51%Possession49%

8Total Shots20

0.29Expected Goals (xG)4.46

2Corners2

10Fouls4

Shots

8Total Shots20

1On Target11

5Off Target7

2Blocked2

3Inside Box18

5Outside Box2

Passing

51%Possession49%

465Total Passes458

398Accurate Passes393

86%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

0.65Goals Prevented0.65

Discipline

10Fouls4

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2