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Brentford vs Southampton — Premier League 2026

Brentford
Brentford
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Southampton
Southampton
Y. Wissa 69'
B. Mbeumo 65', 43'
Y. Sugawara 90+5'
8/31/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Gtech Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Brentford56%
×Draw22%
Southampton22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brentford
1.98
Southampton
1.16

Brentford creates 71% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 12 away

creates per match

Brentford
1.84
Southampton
0.95

allows per match

Brentford
1.36
Southampton
2.11

finishing

Brentford-0.14scores less
Southampton-0.12scores less

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brentford ↓

Southampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Brentford or draw
78%
Brentford or Southampton
78%
Draw or Southampton
44%

Winning margin

Brentford wins by 2+
33%
Southampton wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Brentford 1+ goals
86%
Brentford 2+ goals
59%
Brentford 3+ goals
31%
Southampton 1+ goals
69%
Southampton 2+ goals
32%
Southampton 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Brentford (draw refunded)
72%
Southampton (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brentford at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.36 · 37 matches

Southampton away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.11 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brentford attack 1.84 + Southampton defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.98

Southampton attack 0.95 + Brentford defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Brentford scores more
56%
level
22%
Southampton scores more
22%

Brentford at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
B. MbeumoBrentfordBrentford · F
9.6

Match Events

20'
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
29'
Bryan Mbeumo
39'
M. Roerslev← K. Ajer
43'
B. Mbeumo
46'
Mateus Fernandes← W. Smallbone
46'
C. Archer← A. Armstrong
56'
T. Dibling← T. Harwood-Bellis
65'
B. Mbeumo↳ M. Jensen
69'
Y. Wissa
73'
Ethan Pinnock
75'
S. van den Berg← K. Schade
75'
K. Lewis-Potter← V. Janelt
82'
Fábio Carvalho← M. Damsgaard
82'
A. Lallana← J. Aribo
90+5'
Y. Sugawara↳ A. Lallana

Possession

37%Brentford

Shots

20Brentford

Pass accuracy

50%Brentford

Statistics

BrentfordSouthampton
Overview
37%Possession63%
20Total Shots18
2.78Expected Goals (xG)1.57
2Corners8
10Fouls7
Shots
20Total Shots18
7On Target6
7Off Target7
6Blocked5
15Inside Box9
5Outside Box9
Passing
37%Possession63%
358Total Passes621
310Accurate Passes548
87%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
0.16Goals Prevented0.16
Discipline
10Fouls7
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Premier League: Brentford 3–1 Southampton

Brentford beat Southampton 3-1 in Premier League on August 31, 2024.

Goals: B. Mbeumo (43', 65'), Y. Wissa (69'), Y. Sugawara (90+5').

Southampton controlled possession (63%) and registered 18 shots to 20.

The match was played at Gtech Community Stadium in Brentford, Middlesex.