Brentford 3–0 Southampton: Result & Stats

Brentford

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Southampton

K. Ajer 79'

Y. Wissa 14'

P. Jansson 13'

5/7/2022

Premier League · Round 36Brentford Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Brentford55%

×Draw22%

Southampton22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrentfordExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.14

Brentford

1.92

Southampton

1.14

Brentford creates 68% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 10 away

1.82

creates per match

0.92

1.36

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Brentford

1.82

Southampton

0.92

allows per match

Brentford

1.36

Southampton

2.01

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Brentford-0.15scores less

Southampton-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brentford ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Brentford or draw

78%

Brentford or Southampton

78%

Draw or Southampton

45%

Winning margin

Brentford wins by 2+

32%

Southampton wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Brentford 1+ goals

85%

Brentford 2+ goals

57%

Brentford 3+ goals

30%

Southampton 1+ goals

68%

Southampton 2+ goals

32%

Southampton 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Brentford (draw refunded)

71%

Southampton (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brentford at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.36 · 36 matches

Southampton away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.01 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brentford attack 1.82 + Southampton defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.92

Southampton attack 0.92 + Brentford defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Brentford scores more

55%

level

22%

Southampton scores more

22%

Brentford at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

C. Nørgaard

Brentford · M

8.3

Match Events

13'

P. Jansson↳ I. Toney

14'

Y. Wissa↳ C. Eriksen

17'

Ibrahima Diallo

64'

M. Elyounoussi← I. Diallo

68'

J. Dasilva← Y. Wissa

79'

K. Ajer↳ C. Nørgaard

81'

S. Baptiste← B. Mbeumo

83'

Oriol Romeu← S. Armstrong

87'

N. Young-Coombes← M. Jensen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrentfordSouthampton

Overview

40%Possession60%

18Total Shots19

4Corners7

12Fouls9

Shots

18Total Shots19

5On Target4

8Off Target10

5Blocked5

14Inside Box12

4Outside Box7

Passing

40%Possession60%

321Total Passes470

231Accurate Passes376

72%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2