Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

South Korea vs Qatar — Asian Cup 2019

South Korea
South Korea
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Qatar
Qataradvanced
Abdulaziz Hatem 78'
1/25/2019Asian CupAsian Cup · Quarter-finalsSheikh Zayed Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

South Korea24%
×Draw23%
Qatar53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Korea
1.19
Qatar
1.85

Qatar creates 55% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

South Korea
1.80
Qatar
2.71

allows per match

South Korea
1.00
Qatar
0.57

finishing

South Korea+0.00on par
Qatar+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Korea ↓

Qatar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

South Korea or draw
47%
South Korea or Qatar
77%
Draw or Qatar
76%

Winning margin

South Korea wins by 2+
10%
Qatar wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

South Korea 1+ goals
70%
South Korea 2+ goals
33%
South Korea 3+ goals
12%
Qatar 1+ goals
84%
Qatar 2+ goals
55%
Qatar 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

South Korea (draw refunded)
32%
Qatar (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Korea at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Qatar away — creates 2.71, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Korea attack 1.80 + Qatar defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.19

Qatar attack 2.71 + South Korea defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

South Korea scores more
24%
level
23%
Qatar scores more
53%

Qatar at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Qatar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
Min-jae Kim
37'
Hatim Abdelaziz
40'
Bassam Hisham
51'
Woo-Young Jung
74'
Koo Ja-Cheol← Hwang In-Beom
78'
Abdulaziz Hatem↳ Akram Afif
82'
Ji Dong-Won← Ju Se-Jong
84'
Lee Seung-Woo← Lee Chung-Yong
90'
Karim Boudiaf← Hassan Al Heidos
90+5'
Ahmed Alaa Eldin← Almoez Ali

Possession

58%South

Shots

7South

Statistics

SouthQatar
Overview
58%Possession42%
7Total Shots7
5Corners1
19Fouls14
Shots
7Total Shots7
2On Target4
5Off Target3
Passing
58%Possession42%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
19Fouls14
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: South Korea vs Qatar

Qatar beat South Korea 1-0 in Asian Cup on January 25, 2019.

Goals: Abdulaziz Hatem (78').

South Korea controlled possession (58%) and registered 7 shots to 7.

The match was played at Sheikh Zayed Sports City in Abu Dhabi.