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South Korea vs Qatar — League #30 2026

South Korea
South Korea
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Qatar
Qatar
Heung-Min Son 58'
Dong-Won Ji 55'
Sung-Yeung Ki 11'
Sebastián Soria 45'
Hassan Khalid 16' (pen)
10/6/2016League #30League #30 · 3rd Round - 3Suwon World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

South Korea71%
×Draw18%
Qatar12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Korea
2.33
Qatar
0.83

South Korea creates 181% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

South Korea
1.67
Qatar
1.00

allows per match

South Korea
0.67
Qatar
3.00

finishing

South Korea+0.00on par
Qatar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Korea ↓

Qatar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

South Korea or draw
88%
South Korea or Qatar
82%
Draw or Qatar
29%

Winning margin

South Korea wins by 2+
47%
Qatar wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

South Korea 1+ goals
90%
South Korea 2+ goals
67%
South Korea 3+ goals
41%
Qatar 1+ goals
56%
Qatar 2+ goals
20%
Qatar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

South Korea (draw refunded)
86%
Qatar (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Korea at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Qatar away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Korea attack 1.67 + Qatar defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Qatar attack 1.00 + South Korea defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

South Korea scores more
71%
level
18%
Qatar scores more
12%

South Korea at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "South Korea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
Sung-Yeung Ki↳ Heung-Min Son
15'
Jeong-Ho Hong
16'
Hassan KhalidPenalty
24'
Hyun-Jun Suk
45'
Sebastián Soria↳ Hassan Khalid
46'
Shin-Wook Kim← Hyun-Jun Suk
55'
Dong-Won Ji
58'
Heung-Min Son↳ Sung-Yeung Ki
64'
Ibrahim Majid← Abdelkarim Hassan
64'
Karim Boudiaf← Ahmed El Sayed
66'
Jeong-Ho Hong
66'
Jeong-Ho Hong
70'
Tae-Hwi Kwak← Ja-Cheol Koo
74'
Dong-Won Ji
77'
Sung-Yueng Ki
80'
Akram Afif← Mohammed Kasola
89'
Bo-Kyung Kim← Heung-Min Son

Possession

55%South

Shots

11South

Statistics

SouthQatar
Overview
55%Possession45%
11Total Shots12
3Corners2
16Fouls9
Shots
11Total Shots12
6On Target8
5Off Target4
Passing
55%Possession45%
Goalkeeping
6Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls9
4Yellow Cards0
1Red Cards0
0Offsides1

League #30: South Korea 3–2 Qatar

South Korea beat Qatar 3-2 in League #30 on October 6, 2016.

Goals: Sung-Yeung Ki (11'), Hassan Khalid (16' pen), Sebastián Soria (45'), Dong-Won Ji (55'), Heung-Min Son (58').

South Korea controlled possession (55%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Suwon World Cup Stadium in Suwon.