Qatar 3–2 South Korea: Result & Stats | League #30

Qatar

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

South Korea

Hassan Khalid 74', 25'

Akram Afif 51'

Hee-Chan Hwang 70'

Sung-Yeung Ki 62'

6/13/2017

League #30 · 3rd Round - 8Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Qatar51%

×Draw25%

South Korea24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QatarExpected goals in this matchSouth Korea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.00

Qatar

1.58

South Korea

1.00

Qatar creates 58% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.50

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Qatar

1.50

South Korea

1.00

allows per match

Qatar

1.00

South Korea

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qatar+0.00on par

South Korea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qatar ↓

South Korea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Qatar or draw

76%

Qatar or South Korea

75%

Draw or South Korea

49%

Winning margin

Qatar wins by 2+

26%

South Korea wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Qatar 1+ goals

79%

Qatar 2+ goals

47%

Qatar 3+ goals

21%

South Korea 1+ goals

63%

South Korea 2+ goals

26%

South Korea 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Qatar (draw refunded)

68%

South Korea (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qatar at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

South Korea away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qatar attack 1.50 + South Korea defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

South Korea attack 1.00 + Qatar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Qatar scores more

51%

level

25%

South Korea scores more

24%

Qatar at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Qatar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

Chul-Soon Choi

25'

Hassan Khalid

34'

Keun-Ho Lee← Heung-Min Son

36'

Ibrahim Majid

51'

Akram Afif↳ Hassan Khalid

53'

Il-Soo Hwang← Dong-Won Ji

62'

Mosaab Khoder← Abdelkarim Hassan

62'

Sung-Yeung Ki↳ Jae-Sung Lee II

67'

Karim Boudiaf← Akram Afif

70'

Hee-Chan Hwang↳ Il-Soo Hwang

74'

Hassan Khalid↳ Rodrigo Barbosa Tabata

79'

Tae-Hee Nam← Kook-Young Han

81'

Yasser Aboubaker Essa← Mohammed Musa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

QatarSouth

Overview

36%Possession64%

14Total Shots16

4Corners5

8Fouls23

Shots

14Total Shots16

4On Target6

7Off Target5

3Blocked5

7Inside Box11

7Outside Box5

Passing

36%Possession64%

273Total Passes472

172Accurate Passes366

63%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls23

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2