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South Korea vs Australia — Friendlies 2026

South Korea
South Korea
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Australia
Australia
6/7/2019FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Busan Asiad Main Stadium (Busan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

South Korea41%
×Draw27%
Australia31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Korea
1.34
Australia
1.13

South Korea creates 19% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 16 away

creates per match

South Korea
1.50
Australia
1.19

allows per match

South Korea
1.06
Australia
1.19

finishing

South Korea+0.00on par
Australia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Korea ↓

Australia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

South Korea or draw
69%
South Korea or Australia
73%
Draw or Australia
59%

Winning margin

South Korea wins by 2+
19%
Australia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

South Korea 1+ goals
74%
South Korea 2+ goals
39%
South Korea 3+ goals
15%
Australia 1+ goals
68%
Australia 2+ goals
31%
Australia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

South Korea (draw refunded)
57%
Australia (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Korea at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.06 · 36 matches

Australia away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Korea attack 1.50 + Australia defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.34

Australia attack 1.19 + South Korea defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

South Korea scores more
41%
level
27%
Australia scores more
31%

South Korea at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "South Korea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: South Korea 1–0 Australia

South Korea beat Australia 1-0 in Friendlies on June 7, 2019.

The match was played at Busan Asiad Main Stadium (Busan).