Australia 1–1 South Korea: Result & Stats

Australia

AET

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

South Korea

2/2/2024

Asian Cup · Quarter-finalsAl Janoub Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Australia55%

×Draw24%

South Korea20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AustraliaExpected goals in this matchSouth Korea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.90

Australia

1.67

South Korea

0.90

Australia creates 86% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

0.80

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Australia

2.00

South Korea

1.00

allows per match

Australia

0.80

South Korea

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Australia+0.00on par

South Korea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Australia ↓

South Korea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Australia or draw

80%

Australia or South Korea

76%

Draw or South Korea

45%

Winning margin

Australia wins by 2+

30%

South Korea wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Australia 1+ goals

81%

Australia 2+ goals

50%

Australia 3+ goals

23%

South Korea 1+ goals

59%

South Korea 2+ goals

23%

South Korea 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Australia (draw refunded)

73%

South Korea (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Australia at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

South Korea away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Australia attack 2.00 + South Korea defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

South Korea attack 1.00 + Australia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Australia scores more

55%

level

24%

South Korea scores more

20%

Australia at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Australia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff