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Australia vs South Korea — Friendlies 2026

Australia
Australia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
South Korea
South Korea
11/17/2018FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Suncorp Stadium (Brisbane)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Australia54%
×Draw23%
South Korea23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Australia
1.81
South Korea
1.08

Australia creates 68% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

creates per match

Australia
2.00
South Korea
1.54

allows per match

Australia
0.63
South Korea
1.62

finishing

Australia+0.00on par
South Korea+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Australia ↓

South Korea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Australia or draw
77%
Australia or South Korea
77%
Draw or South Korea
46%

Winning margin

Australia wins by 2+
31%
South Korea wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Australia 1+ goals
84%
Australia 2+ goals
54%
Australia 3+ goals
27%
South Korea 1+ goals
66%
South Korea 2+ goals
29%
South Korea 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Australia (draw refunded)
71%
South Korea (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Australia at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

South Korea away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Australia attack 2.00 + South Korea defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.81

South Korea attack 1.54 + Australia defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Australia scores more
54%
level
23%
South Korea scores more
23%

Australia at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Australia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Australia 1–1 South Korea

Australia and South Korea drew 1-1 in Friendlies on November 17, 2018.

The match was played at Suncorp Stadium (Brisbane).