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Song Lam Nghe An vs Công An Nhân Dân — V.League 1 2019

Song Lam Nghe An
Song Lam Nghe An
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Công An Nhân Dân
Công An Nhân Dân
10/18/2025V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 7Vinh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Song Lam Nghe An33%
×Draw27%
Công An Nhân Dân40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Song Lam Nghe An
1.16
Công An Nhân Dân
1.30

Công An Nhân Dân creates 12% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 48 away

creates per match

Song Lam Nghe An
1.15
Công An Nhân Dân
1.67

allows per match

Song Lam Nghe An
0.93
Công An Nhân Dân
1.17

finishing

Song Lam Nghe An+0.00on par
Công An Nhân Dân+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Song Lam Nghe An ↓

Công An Nhân Dân →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Song Lam Nghe An or draw
60%
Song Lam Nghe An or Công An Nhân Dân
73%
Draw or Công An Nhân Dân
67%

Winning margin

Song Lam Nghe An wins by 2+
14%
Công An Nhân Dân wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Song Lam Nghe An 1+ goals
69%
Song Lam Nghe An 2+ goals
32%
Song Lam Nghe An 3+ goals
11%
Công An Nhân Dân 1+ goals
73%
Công An Nhân Dân 2+ goals
37%
Công An Nhân Dân 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Song Lam Nghe An (draw refunded)
45%
Công An Nhân Dân (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Song Lam Nghe An at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.93 · 88 matches

Công An Nhân Dân away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Song Lam Nghe An attack 1.15 + Công An Nhân Dân defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.16

Công An Nhân Dân attack 1.67 + Song Lam Nghe An defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Song Lam Nghe An scores more
33%
level
27%
Công An Nhân Dân scores more
40%

Công An Nhân Dân at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Công An Nhân Dân will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 1: Song Lam Nghe An 1–1 Công An Nhân Dân

Song Lam Nghe An and Công An Nhân Dân drew 1-1 in V.League 1 on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Vinh Stadium in Vinh.