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Công An Nhân Dân vs Song Lam Nghe An — V.League 1 2019

Công An Nhân Dân
Công An Nhân Dân
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Song Lam Nghe An
Song Lam Nghe An
1/18/2025V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 10Sân vận động Hàng Đẫy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Công An Nhân Dân59%
×Draw23%
Song Lam Nghe An18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Công An Nhân Dân
1.83
Song Lam Nghe An
0.90

Công An Nhân Dân creates 103% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 88 away

creates per match

Công An Nhân Dân
2.12
Song Lam Nghe An
0.90

allows per match

Công An Nhân Dân
0.90
Song Lam Nghe An
1.55

finishing

Công An Nhân Dân+0.00on par
Song Lam Nghe An+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Công An Nhân Dân ↓

Song Lam Nghe An →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Công An Nhân Dân or draw
82%
Công An Nhân Dân or Song Lam Nghe An
77%
Draw or Song Lam Nghe An
41%

Winning margin

Công An Nhân Dân wins by 2+
34%
Song Lam Nghe An wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Công An Nhân Dân 1+ goals
84%
Công An Nhân Dân 2+ goals
54%
Công An Nhân Dân 3+ goals
28%
Song Lam Nghe An 1+ goals
59%
Song Lam Nghe An 2+ goals
23%
Song Lam Nghe An 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Công An Nhân Dân (draw refunded)
77%
Song Lam Nghe An (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Công An Nhân Dân at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.90 · 50 matches

Song Lam Nghe An away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.55 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Công An Nhân Dân attack 2.12 + Song Lam Nghe An defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.83

Song Lam Nghe An attack 0.90 + Công An Nhân Dân defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Công An Nhân Dân scores more
59%
level
23%
Song Lam Nghe An scores more
18%

Công An Nhân Dân at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Công An Nhân Dân will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 1: Công An Nhân Dân 1–1 Song Lam Nghe An

Công An Nhân Dân and Song Lam Nghe An drew 1-1 in V.League 1 on January 18, 2025.

The match was played at Sân vận động Hàng Đẫy in Hanoi.