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Song Lam Nghe An vs Công An Nhân Dân — Cup 2019

Song Lam Nghe An
Song Lam Nghe An
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Công An Nhân Dân
Công An Nhân Dânadvanced
6/29/2025CupCup · Final

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Song Lam Nghe An37%
×Draw22%
Công An Nhân Dân41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Song Lam Nghe An
1.75
Công An Nhân Dân
1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Song Lam Nghe An
1.67
Công An Nhân Dân
2.17

allows per match

Song Lam Nghe An
1.56
Công An Nhân Dân
1.83

finishing

Song Lam Nghe An+0.00on par
Công An Nhân Dân+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Song Lam Nghe An ↓

Công An Nhân Dân →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Song Lam Nghe An or draw
59%
Song Lam Nghe An or Công An Nhân Dân
78%
Draw or Công An Nhân Dân
63%

Winning margin

Song Lam Nghe An wins by 2+
19%
Công An Nhân Dân wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Song Lam Nghe An 1+ goals
83%
Song Lam Nghe An 2+ goals
52%
Song Lam Nghe An 3+ goals
25%
Công An Nhân Dân 1+ goals
84%
Công An Nhân Dân 2+ goals
55%
Công An Nhân Dân 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Song Lam Nghe An (draw refunded)
47%
Công An Nhân Dân (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Song Lam Nghe An at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Công An Nhân Dân away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Song Lam Nghe An attack 1.67 + Công An Nhân Dân defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.75

Công An Nhân Dân attack 2.17 + Song Lam Nghe An defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Song Lam Nghe An scores more
37%
level
22%
Công An Nhân Dân scores more
41%

Công An Nhân Dân at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Công An Nhân Dân will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Song Lam Nghe An 0–5 Công An Nhân Dân

Công An Nhân Dân beat Song Lam Nghe An 5-0 in Cup on June 29, 2025.