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Sonderjyske vs FC Midtjylland — Superliga 2018

Sonderjyske
Sonderjyske
Preview
12:00
FC Midtjylland
FC Midtjylland
7/26/2026SuperligaSuperliga · Round 1Haderslev Football Stadium
Big match
41%
Sonderjyske
model favours
41%24%35%

Sonderjyske score first in only 23% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Sonderjyske41%
×Draw24%
FC Midtjylland35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sonderjyske
1.64
FC Midtjylland
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 21 away

creates per match

Sonderjyske
1.57
FC Midtjylland
1.44

allows per match

Sonderjyske
1.58
FC Midtjylland
1.70

finishing

Sonderjyske+0.31scores more
FC Midtjylland+0.32scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonderjyske ↓

FC Midtjylland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sonderjyske or draw
65%
Sonderjyske or FC Midtjylland
76%
Draw or FC Midtjylland
59%

Winning margin

Sonderjyske wins by 2+
21%
FC Midtjylland wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sonderjyske 1+ goals
81%
Sonderjyske 2+ goals
49%
Sonderjyske 3+ goals
23%
FC Midtjylland 1+ goals
78%
FC Midtjylland 2+ goals
44%
FC Midtjylland 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sonderjyske (draw refunded)
54%
FC Midtjylland (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonderjyske at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.58 · 17 matches

FC Midtjylland away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.70 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonderjyske attack 1.57 + FC Midtjylland defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.64

FC Midtjylland attack 1.44 + Sonderjyske defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sonderjyske scores more
41%
level
24%
FC Midtjylland scores more
35%

Sonderjyske at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sonderjyske will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • When FC Midtjylland score first, they win 83% of the time
  • FC Midtjylland score first in 62% of matches
  • Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 4.7 goals
  • 35% of FC Midtjylland’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • FC Midtjylland outscore their xG (2.1 vs 1.6 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Sonderjyske
Direct / counter-attacking
FC Midtjylland
Balanced
43%Possession51%
78%Pass accuracy79%
11.2ShotsBiggest gap14.8
1.47xG1.56
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
SonderjyskeFC Midtjylland

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Sonderjyske
1
Draws
6
FC Midtjylland
Avg goals: 4.7BTTS: 90%
1–22–23–62–12–6

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Sonderjyske
WLDWL
Midtjylland
LWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sonderjyske host FC Midtjylland

July 26, 2026: Sonderjyske take on FC Midtjylland in Superliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sonderjyske host FC Midtjylland at Haderslev Football Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.