Sonderjyske 1–2 FC Midtjylland: Result & Stats

Sonderjyske

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

FC Midtjylland

M. Hoppe 40'

D. L. Gretarsson 49' (OG)

E. Chilufya 24'

4/23/2026

Superliga · Championship Group - 28Haderslev Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Sonderjyske34%

×Draw23%

FC Midtjylland43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SonderjyskeExpected goals in this matchFC Midtjylland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.73

Sonderjyske

1.52

FC Midtjylland

1.73

FC Midtjylland creates 14% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

1.28

creates per match

1.58

1.88

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Sonderjyske

1.28

FC Midtjylland

1.58

allows per match

Sonderjyske

1.88

FC Midtjylland

1.77

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

+0.57scores more than expected

finishing

Sonderjyske+0.39scores more

FC Midtjylland+0.57scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonderjyske ↓

FC Midtjylland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sonderjyske or draw

57%

Sonderjyske or FC Midtjylland

77%

Draw or FC Midtjylland

66%

Winning margin

Sonderjyske wins by 2+

16%

FC Midtjylland wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Sonderjyske 1+ goals

78%

Sonderjyske 2+ goals

45%

Sonderjyske 3+ goals

20%

FC Midtjylland 1+ goals

82%

FC Midtjylland 2+ goals

52%

FC Midtjylland 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Sonderjyske (draw refunded)

44%

FC Midtjylland (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonderjyske at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.88 · 9 matches

FC Midtjylland away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonderjyske attack 1.28 + FC Midtjylland defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.52

FC Midtjylland attack 1.58 + Sonderjyske defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sonderjyske scores more

34%

level

23%

FC Midtjylland scores more

43%

FC Midtjylland at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Midtjylland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Hoppe

Sonderjyske · F

7.7

Match Events

24'

E. Chilufya

40'

M. Hoppe↳ T. Sommer

45+1'

Matthew Hoppe

46'

V. Bak← Paulinho

48'

Han-Beom Lee

49'

D. L. GretarssonOwn goal

59'

P. Billing← E. Chilufya

67'

L. Qamili← M. Hoppe

68'

T. Klysner← A. Lyng

72'

D. Wilkins← G. Duru

72'

A. Pedersen← A. Oggesen

77'

K. Mbabu← D. Osorio

78'

Philip Billing

87'

E. Hjort- Pedersen← S. Emini

89'

M. Gogorza← A. Simsir

90+5'

Mikel Gogorza

90+3'

Kevin Mbabu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SonderjyskeFC

Overview

40%Possession60%

8Total Shots16

0.87Expected Goals (xG)1.38

3Corners8

14Fouls16

Shots

8Total Shots16

4On Target4

2Off Target8

2Blocked4

7Inside Box9

1Outside Box7

Passing

40%Possession60%

286Total Passes422

200Accurate Passes337

70%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

0.38Goals Prevented0.38

Discipline

14Fouls16

1Yellow Cards4