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Sonderjyske vs FC Midtjylland — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sonderjyske
Sonderjyske
FT
3 – 6
HT: 2 – 2
FC Midtjylland
FC Midtjylland
M. Soulas 58'
E. Hjort- Pedersen 33'
A. Lyng 23'
Lee Han-Beom 78', 55'
M. Bech Sorensen 72'
K. Mbabu 47'
J. Arinze 38'
O. Diao 35'
1/9/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sonderjyske27%
×Draw19%
FC Midtjylland54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sonderjyske
1.90
FC Midtjylland
2.69

FC Midtjylland creates 42% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Sonderjyske
1.70
FC Midtjylland
2.78

allows per match

Sonderjyske
2.60
FC Midtjylland
2.11

finishing

Sonderjyske+0.00on par
FC Midtjylland+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonderjyske ↓

FC Midtjylland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Sonderjyske or draw
46%
Sonderjyske or FC Midtjylland
81%
Draw or FC Midtjylland
73%

Winning margin

Sonderjyske wins by 2+
14%
FC Midtjylland wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Sonderjyske 1+ goals
85%
Sonderjyske 2+ goals
56%
Sonderjyske 3+ goals
29%
FC Midtjylland 1+ goals
93%
FC Midtjylland 2+ goals
74%
FC Midtjylland 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Sonderjyske (draw refunded)
33%
FC Midtjylland (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonderjyske at home — creates 1.70, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

FC Midtjylland away — creates 2.78, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonderjyske attack 1.70 + FC Midtjylland defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.90

FC Midtjylland attack 2.78 + Sonderjyske defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sonderjyske scores more
27%
level
19%
FC Midtjylland scores more
54%

FC Midtjylland at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Midtjylland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
A. Lyng
33'
E. Hjort- Pedersen
35'
O. Diao
38'
J. Arinze
47'
K. Mbabu
55'
Lee Han-Beom
58'
M. Soulas
72'
M. Bech Sorensen
78'
Lee Han-Beom
Sonderjyske
FC
Thomas Norgaard
Manager: Thomas Norgaard
Mike Tullberg
Manager: Mike Tullberg

Friendlies Clubs: Sonderjyske 3–6 FC Midtjylland

FC Midtjylland beat Sonderjyske 6-3 in Friendlies Clubs on January 9, 2026.

Goals: A. Lyng (23'), E. Hjort- Pedersen (33'), O. Diao (35'), J. Arinze (38'), K. Mbabu (47'), Lee Han-Beom (55', 78'), M. Soulas (58'), M. Bech Sorensen (72').