FC Midtjylland 6–2 Sonderjyske: Result & Stats

FC Midtjylland

FT

6 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Sonderjyske

M. Bech Sorensen 79'

Franculino 75' (pen), 35', 17'

V. Byskov 65'

A. Gabriel 27'

M. Jensen 86' (pen)

A. Lyng 9'

7/28/2025

Superliga · Round 2MCH Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

FC Midtjylland53%

×Draw21%

Sonderjyske26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC MidtjyllandExpected goals in this matchSonderjyske

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.39

FC Midtjylland

2.05

Sonderjyske

1.39

FC Midtjylland creates 47% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.79

creates per match

1.42

1.35

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

FC Midtjylland

1.79

Sonderjyske

1.42

allows per match

FC Midtjylland

1.35

Sonderjyske

2.31

+1.13scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

FC Midtjylland+1.13scores more

Sonderjyske-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Midtjylland ↓

Sonderjyske →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

FC Midtjylland or draw

74%

FC Midtjylland or Sonderjyske

79%

Draw or Sonderjyske

47%

Winning margin

FC Midtjylland wins by 2+

31%

Sonderjyske wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FC Midtjylland 1+ goals

87%

FC Midtjylland 2+ goals

61%

FC Midtjylland 3+ goals

33%

Sonderjyske 1+ goals

75%

Sonderjyske 2+ goals

40%

Sonderjyske 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FC Midtjylland (draw refunded)

67%

Sonderjyske (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Midtjylland at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.35 · 12 matches

Sonderjyske away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.31 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Midtjylland attack 1.79 + Sonderjyske defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.05

Sonderjyske attack 1.42 + FC Midtjylland defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FC Midtjylland scores more

53%

level

21%

Sonderjyske scores more

26%

FC Midtjylland at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FC Midtjylland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Franculino

FC Midtjylland · F

10.0

Match Events

9'

A. Lyng↳ M. Agger

17'

Franculino↳ A. Simsir

27'

A. Gabriel↳ A. Simsir

35'

Franculino↳ A. Gabriel

46'

M. Cherif← T. Klysner

58'

M. Hoppe← M. Soulas

60'

V. Byskov← E. Chilufya

60'

D. Osorio← A. Simsir

65'

V. Byskov↳ Franculino

68'

L. Bjorklund← O. Hyseni

72'

K. Mbabu← A. Gabriel

72'

D. Castillo← O. Sorensen

75'

FranculinoPenalty

77'

Tobias Sommer

77'

F. Etim← M. Gogorza

79'

M. Bech Sorensen↳ V. Byskov

81'

M. Olsen← A. Lyng

81'

A. Rrahmani← M. Agger

84'

Matthew HoppePenalty confirmed

86'

M. JensenPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCSonderjyske

Overview

55%Possession45%

22Total Shots20

3.37Expected Goals (xG)1.98

5Corners3

6Fouls14

Shots

22Total Shots20

9On Target7

11Off Target7

2Blocked6

17Inside Box14

5Outside Box6

Passing

55%Possession45%

503Total Passes413

440Accurate Passes341

87%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls14

0Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0

Superliga: FC Midtjylland 6–2 Sonderjyske

FC Midtjylland beat Sonderjyske 6-2 in Superliga on July 28, 2025.

Goals: A. Lyng (9'), Franculino (17', 35', 75' pen), A. Gabriel (27'), V. Byskov (65'), M. Bech Sorensen (79'), M. Jensen (86' pen).

FC Midtjylland controlled possession (55%) and registered 22 shots to 20.

The match was played at MCH Arena in Herning.

FC Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske — Superliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Superliga: FC Midtjylland 6–2 Sonderjyske