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Somaspor vs Arnavutköy Belediyespor — League #205 2026

Somaspor
Somaspor
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Arnavutköy Belediyespor
Arnavutköy Belediyespor
C. Cengiz 32'
A. Yildirim 66'
C. Dincer 52'
F. Yaman 44' (pen)
10/26/2025League #205League #205 · Kırmızı - 10Soma Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Somaspor42%
×Draw27%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Somaspor
1.35
Arnavutköy Belediyespor
1.10

Somaspor creates 23% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Somaspor
1.20
Arnavutköy Belediyespor
1.00

allows per match

Somaspor
1.20
Arnavutköy Belediyespor
1.50

finishing

Somaspor+0.00on par
Arnavutköy Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Somaspor ↓

Arnavutköy Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Somaspor or draw
70%
Somaspor or Arnavutköy Belediyespor
73%
Draw or Arnavutköy Belediyespor
58%

Winning margin

Somaspor wins by 2+
20%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Somaspor 1+ goals
74%
Somaspor 2+ goals
39%
Somaspor 3+ goals
15%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor 1+ goals
67%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor 2+ goals
30%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Somaspor (draw refunded)
58%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Somaspor at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Arnavutköy Belediyespor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Somaspor attack 1.20 + Arnavutköy Belediyespor defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Arnavutköy Belediyespor attack 1.00 + Somaspor defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Somaspor scores more
42%
level
27%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor scores more
30%

Somaspor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Somaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
C. Cengiz
38'
F. Gunduz
38'
F. Gunduz
38'
I. Akgun
38'
I. Akgun
44'
F. YamanPenalty
52'
C. Dincer↳ F. Yaman
66'
A. Yildirim

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #205: Somaspor 1–3 Arnavutköy Belediyespor

Arnavutköy Belediyespor beat Somaspor 3-1 in League #205 on October 26, 2025.

Goals: C. Cengiz (32'), F. Yaman (44' pen), C. Dincer (52'), A. Yildirim (66').

The match was played at Soma Atatürk Stadyumu in Soma.