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Arnavutköy Belediyespor vs Somaspor — League #205 2026

Arnavutköy Belediyespor
Arnavutköy Belediyespor
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Somaspor
Somaspor
3/8/2026League #205League #205 · Kırmızı - 27Bolluca Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Arnavutköy Belediyespor20%
×Draw45%
Somaspor35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arnavutköy Belediyespor
0.41
Somaspor
0.64

Somaspor creates 56% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Arnavutköy Belediyespor
0.38
Somaspor
0.78

allows per match

Arnavutköy Belediyespor
0.50
Somaspor
0.44

finishing

Arnavutköy Belediyespor+0.00on par
Somaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Under
  • Under91
  • Over9

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

84%No
  • No84
  • Yes16

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arnavutköy Belediyespor ↓

Somaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–035%
0–122%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–12%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (35%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
65%35%1.5
28%72%2.5
9%91%3.5
2%98%4.5
0%100%

Double chance

Arnavutköy Belediyespor or draw
65%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor or Somaspor
55%
Draw or Somaspor
80%

Winning margin

Arnavutköy Belediyespor wins by 2+
4%
Somaspor wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Arnavutköy Belediyespor 1+ goals
34%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor 2+ goals
6%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor 3+ goals
1%
Somaspor 1+ goals
47%
Somaspor 2+ goals
14%
Somaspor 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Arnavutköy Belediyespor (draw refunded)
36%
Somaspor (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
7%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arnavutköy Belediyespor at home — creates 0.38, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Somaspor away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arnavutköy Belediyespor attack 0.38 + Somaspor defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.41

Somaspor attack 0.78 + Arnavutköy Belediyespor defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Arnavutköy Belediyespor scores more
20%
level
45%
Somaspor scores more
35%

Somaspor at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Somaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #205: Arnavutköy Belediyespor 0–0 Somaspor

Arnavutköy Belediyespor and Somaspor drew 0-0 in League #205 on March 8, 2026.

The match was played at Bolluca Stadı in Arnavutköy.