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Somaspor vs Arnavutköy Belediyespor — League #205 2026

Somaspor
Somaspor
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Arnavutköy Belediyespor
Arnavutköy Belediyespor
4/13/2025League #205League #205 · Kirmizi - 31Soma Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Somaspor45%
×Draw26%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Somaspor
1.48
Arnavutköy Belediyespor
1.15

Somaspor creates 29% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Somaspor
1.29
Arnavutköy Belediyespor
1.00

allows per match

Somaspor
1.29
Arnavutköy Belediyespor
1.67

finishing

Somaspor+0.00on par
Arnavutköy Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Somaspor ↓

Arnavutköy Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Somaspor or draw
71%
Somaspor or Arnavutköy Belediyespor
74%
Draw or Arnavutköy Belediyespor
55%

Winning margin

Somaspor wins by 2+
22%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Somaspor 1+ goals
77%
Somaspor 2+ goals
43%
Somaspor 3+ goals
19%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor 1+ goals
68%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor 2+ goals
32%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Somaspor (draw refunded)
60%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Somaspor at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Arnavutköy Belediyespor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Somaspor attack 1.29 + Arnavutköy Belediyespor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Arnavutköy Belediyespor attack 1.00 + Somaspor defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Somaspor scores more
45%
level
26%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor scores more
29%

Somaspor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Somaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #205: Somaspor 3–2 Arnavutköy Belediyespor

Somaspor beat Arnavutköy Belediyespor 3-2 in League #205 on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Soma Atatürk Stadyumu in Soma.