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Sokol Lanžhot vs Břeclav — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Sokol Lanžhot
Sokol Lanžhot
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Břeclav
Břeclav
6/8/20254. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 29Na Šlajsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Sokol Lanžhot67%
×Draw19%
Břeclav14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Lanžhot
2.28
Břeclav
0.94

Sokol Lanžhot creates 143% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 66 away

creates per match

Sokol Lanžhot
2.42
Břeclav
1.03

allows per match

Sokol Lanžhot
0.85
Břeclav
2.14

finishing

Sokol Lanžhot+0.00on par
Břeclav+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Lanžhot ↓

Břeclav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sokol Lanžhot or draw
86%
Sokol Lanžhot or Břeclav
81%
Draw or Břeclav
33%

Winning margin

Sokol Lanžhot wins by 2+
44%
Břeclav wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sokol Lanžhot 1+ goals
90%
Sokol Lanžhot 2+ goals
66%
Sokol Lanžhot 3+ goals
39%
Břeclav 1+ goals
61%
Břeclav 2+ goals
24%
Břeclav 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sokol Lanžhot (draw refunded)
83%
Břeclav (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Lanžhot at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.85 · 67 matches

Břeclav away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.14 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Lanžhot attack 2.42 + Břeclav defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.28

Břeclav attack 1.03 + Sokol Lanžhot defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Sokol Lanžhot scores more
67%
level
19%
Břeclav scores more
14%

Sokol Lanžhot at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Sokol Lanžhot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Lanžhot vs Břeclav

Sokol Lanžhot and Břeclav drew 0-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on June 8, 2025.

The match was played at Na Šlajsi in Lanžhot.