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Břeclav vs Sokol Lanžhot — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Břeclav
Břeclav
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sokol Lanžhot
Sokol Lanžhot
8/16/20254. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 3Stadion Lesní ulice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Břeclav32%
×Draw27%
Sokol Lanžhot42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Břeclav
1.14
Sokol Lanžhot
1.35

Sokol Lanžhot creates 18% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Břeclav
1.14
Sokol Lanžhot
1.50

allows per match

Břeclav
1.21
Sokol Lanžhot
1.14

finishing

Břeclav+0.00on par
Sokol Lanžhot+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Břeclav ↓

Sokol Lanžhot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Břeclav or draw
58%
Břeclav or Sokol Lanžhot
73%
Draw or Sokol Lanžhot
68%

Winning margin

Břeclav wins by 2+
13%
Sokol Lanžhot wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Břeclav 1+ goals
68%
Břeclav 2+ goals
32%
Břeclav 3+ goals
11%
Sokol Lanžhot 1+ goals
74%
Sokol Lanžhot 2+ goals
39%
Sokol Lanžhot 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Břeclav (draw refunded)
43%
Sokol Lanžhot (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Břeclav at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Sokol Lanžhot away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Břeclav attack 1.14 + Sokol Lanžhot defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.14

Sokol Lanžhot attack 1.50 + Břeclav defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Břeclav scores more
32%
level
27%
Sokol Lanžhot scores more
42%

Sokol Lanžhot at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sokol Lanžhot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Břeclav vs Sokol Lanžhot

Břeclav beat Sokol Lanžhot 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie E on August 16, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Lesní ulice in Břeclav.