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Břeclav vs Sokol Lanžhot — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Břeclav
Břeclav
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sokol Lanžhot
Sokol Lanžhot
11/2/20244. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 14Stadion Lesní ulice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Břeclav31%
×Draw25%
Sokol Lanžhot44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Břeclav
1.25
Sokol Lanžhot
1.56

Sokol Lanžhot creates 25% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 67 away

creates per match

Břeclav
1.39
Sokol Lanžhot
1.75

allows per match

Břeclav
1.36
Sokol Lanžhot
1.12

finishing

Břeclav+0.00on par
Sokol Lanžhot+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Břeclav ↓

Sokol Lanžhot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Břeclav or draw
56%
Břeclav or Sokol Lanžhot
75%
Draw or Sokol Lanžhot
69%

Winning margin

Břeclav wins by 2+
13%
Sokol Lanžhot wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Břeclav 1+ goals
71%
Břeclav 2+ goals
36%
Břeclav 3+ goals
13%
Sokol Lanžhot 1+ goals
79%
Sokol Lanžhot 2+ goals
46%
Sokol Lanžhot 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Břeclav (draw refunded)
41%
Sokol Lanžhot (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Břeclav at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.36 · 69 matches

Sokol Lanžhot away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.12 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Břeclav attack 1.39 + Sokol Lanžhot defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sokol Lanžhot attack 1.75 + Břeclav defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Břeclav scores more
31%
level
25%
Sokol Lanžhot scores more
44%

Sokol Lanžhot at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sokol Lanžhot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Břeclav vs Sokol Lanžhot

Břeclav and Sokol Lanžhot drew 0-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Lesní ulice in Břeclav.