Sochaux 2–0 Paris FC: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Sochaux

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Paris FC

M. Bernauer 86' (OG)

A. Kalulu 10'

9/18/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 8Stade Auguste-Bonal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 156+ matches

Sochaux38%

×Draw29%

Paris FC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SochauxExpected goals in this matchParis FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.08

Sochaux

1.18

Paris FC

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 158 home / 156 away

1.23

creates per match

1.07

1.08

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Sochaux

1.23

Paris FC

1.07

allows per match

Sochaux

1.08

Paris FC

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sochaux+0.00on par

Paris FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sochaux ↓

Paris FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sochaux or draw

67%

Sochaux or Paris FC

71%

Draw or Paris FC

62%

Winning margin

Sochaux wins by 2+

16%

Paris FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sochaux 1+ goals

69%

Sochaux 2+ goals

33%

Sochaux 3+ goals

12%

Paris FC 1+ goals

66%

Paris FC 2+ goals

29%

Paris FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sochaux (draw refunded)

53%

Paris FC (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sochaux at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.08 · 158 matches

Paris FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sochaux attack 1.23 + Paris FC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.18

Paris FC attack 1.07 + Sochaux defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sochaux scores more

38%

level

29%

Paris FC scores more

33%

Sochaux at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sochaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

F. Pogba

Sochaux · D

7.3

Match Events

10'

A. Kalulu↳ T. Mauricio

17'

Ousmane Kante

31'

J. López← M. Guilavogui

36'

Joseph Lopy

55'

M. Alfarela← A. Tattevin

55'

M. Bernauer← O. Kanté

55'

Y. Demoncy← C. Diakité

59'

S. Ambri← M. Teixeira

59'

R. Ndiaye← J. Lopy

72'

H. Tebily← A. Kalulu

77'

A. Gory← F. Hanin

78'

S. Diagne← M. Senaya

82'

Alimami Gory

86'

M. BernauerOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SochauxParis

Overview

47%Possession53%

12Total Shots6

3Corners3

10Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots6

4On Target2

5Off Target3

3Blocked1

7Inside Box3

5Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

417Total Passes472

327Accurate Passes351

78%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

5Offsides0