Paris FC 3–1 Sochaux: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Paris FC

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sochaux

M. Gueye 76'

M. Guilavogui 73'

K. Boutaïb 69'

T. Mauricio 35'

2/26/2022

Ligue 2 · Round 26Stade Charléty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 155+ matches

Paris FC41%

×Draw29%

Sochaux30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paris FCExpected goals in this matchSochaux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.98

Paris FC

1.21

Sochaux

0.98

Paris FC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 155 home / 159 away

1.34

creates per match

0.99

0.97

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Paris FC

1.34

Sochaux

0.99

allows per match

Paris FC

0.97

Sochaux

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paris FC+0.00on par

Sochaux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris FC ↓

Sochaux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Paris FC or draw

70%

Paris FC or Sochaux

71%

Draw or Sochaux

59%

Winning margin

Paris FC wins by 2+

18%

Sochaux wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Paris FC 1+ goals

70%

Paris FC 2+ goals

34%

Paris FC 3+ goals

12%

Sochaux 1+ goals

62%

Sochaux 2+ goals

26%

Sochaux 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Paris FC (draw refunded)

58%

Sochaux (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris FC at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.97 · 155 matches

Sochaux away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.08 · 159 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris FC attack 1.34 + Sochaux defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sochaux attack 0.99 + Paris FC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Paris FC scores more

41%

level

29%

Sochaux scores more

30%

Paris FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Paris FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

M. Guilavogui

Paris FC · M

7.9

Match Events

35'

T. Mauricio↳ A. Ndour

43'

M. Senaya← V. Henry

64'

Mahamé Siby

64'

J. López← J. Iglesias

64'

M. Guilavogui← A. Gory

65'

F. Pogba← C. Diedhiou

69'

K. Boutaïb

73'

M. Guilavogui↳ F. Hanin

76'

M. Gueye↳ M. Guilavogui

79'

M. Alfarela← M. Gueye

79'

O. Thioune← M. Do Couto

79'

Steve Ambri← G. Weissbeck

79'

H. Tebily← Y. Kitala

80'

Ousseynou Thioune

90+2'

M. Bernauer← O. Camara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ParisSochaux

Overview

56%Possession44%

9Total Shots7

7Corners6

10Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots7

4On Target5

1Off Target1

4Blocked1

3Inside Box6

6Outside Box1

Passing

56%Possession44%

451Total Passes358

346Accurate Passes253

77%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls15

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides4