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Paris FC vs Sochaux — Ligue 2 2010

Paris FC
Paris FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sochaux
Sochaux
P. Hamel 90'
M. Guilavogui 81'
S. Alvero 27'
5/20/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 36Stade Charléty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 155+ matches

Paris FC41%
×Draw29%
Sochaux30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris FC
1.21
Sochaux
0.98

Paris FC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 155 home / 159 away

creates per match

Paris FC
1.34
Sochaux
0.99

allows per match

Paris FC
0.97
Sochaux
1.08

finishing

Paris FC+0.00on par
Sochaux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 63Over: 3763%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 56Yes: 4456%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris FC ↓

Sochaux →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Paris FC or draw
70%
Paris FC or Sochaux
71%
Draw or Sochaux
59%

Winning margin

Paris FC wins by 2+
18%
Sochaux wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Paris FC 1+ goals
70%
Paris FC 2+ goals
34%
Paris FC 3+ goals
12%
Sochaux 1+ goals
62%
Sochaux 2+ goals
26%
Sochaux 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Paris FC (draw refunded)
58%
Sochaux (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris FC at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.97 · 155 matches

Sochaux away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.08 · 159 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris FC attack 1.34 + Sochaux defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sochaux attack 0.99 + Paris FC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Paris FC scores more
41%
level
29%
Sochaux scores more
30%

Paris FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Paris FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
Y. MaçonParis FCParis FC · M
7.5

Match Events

27'
S. Alvero↳ M. Doumbia
46'
M. Guilavogui← M. Bernauer
46'
I. Kebbal← K. Boutaïb
60'
Morgan Guilavogui
66'
Eliezer Mayenda← J. Dossou
69'
J. López← S. Sanogo
69'
L. Phiri← P. Lasne
77'
M. Do Couto← M. Doumbia
77'
R. Pereira De Sa← R. Ndiaye
81'
M. Guilavogui↳ I. Kebbal
84'
I. Sissoko← A. Kalulu
85'
S. Chergui← M. Chahiri
90+2'
Skelly Alvero
90'
P. Hamel↳ Y. Maçon

Possession

Paris: 52Sochaux: 4852%Paris

Shots

Paris: 9Sochaux: 109Paris

Pass accuracy

Paris: 84Sochaux: 8749%Paris

Statistics

ParisSochaux
Overview
52%Possession48%
9Total Shots10
5Corners3
16Fouls10
Shots
9Total Shots10
4On Target4
5Off Target2
0Blocked4
6Inside Box7
3Outside Box3
Passing
52%Possession48%
504Total Passes477
421Accurate Passes414
84%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Ligue 2: Paris FC 2–1 Sochaux

Paris FC beat Sochaux 2-1 in Ligue 2 on May 20, 2023.

Goals: S. Alvero (27'), M. Guilavogui (81'), P. Hamel (90').

Paris FC controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stade Charléty in Paris.