Sochaux 1–0 Grenoble: Result & Stats

Sochaux

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Grenoble

7/18/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sochaux71%

×Draw21%

Grenoble8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SochauxExpected goals in this matchGrenoble

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.42

Sochaux

1.81

Grenoble

0.42

Sochaux creates 331% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.63

creates per match

0.20

0.63

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sochaux

1.63

Grenoble

0.20

allows per match

Sochaux

0.63

Grenoble

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sochaux+0.00on par

Grenoble+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sochaux ↓

Grenoble →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–018%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sochaux or draw

92%

Sochaux or Grenoble

79%

Draw or Grenoble

29%

Winning margin

Sochaux wins by 2+

44%

Grenoble wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Sochaux 1+ goals

84%

Sochaux 2+ goals

54%

Sochaux 3+ goals

27%

Grenoble 1+ goals

34%

Grenoble 2+ goals

7%

Grenoble 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Sochaux (draw refunded)

90%

Grenoble (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sochaux at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Grenoble away — creates 0.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sochaux attack 1.63 + Grenoble defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Grenoble attack 0.20 + Sochaux defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Sochaux scores more

71%

level

21%

Grenoble scores more

8%

Sochaux at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Sochaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Sochaux

Grenoble

16

19

5

33

27

14

6

11

9

8

1

17

4

26

24

23

5

8

10

19

7

Manager: Vincent Hognon

Sochaux substitutes

30PierreMouyema14Peybernes3Gomis35ToureDiawara15MexiqueBayanginisa21Cortes9Djoco11Vetro

Manager: Olivier Frapolli

Grenoble substitutes

Mouton49Allegret36Martinez-JullienPereira10Mouazan26Mion2Djitte12Bonnet17Pelon

Friendlies Clubs: Sochaux 1–0 Grenoble

Sochaux beat Grenoble 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 18, 2026.

Sochaux vs Grenoble — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: Sochaux 1–0 Grenoble