Sochaux 1–0 Grenoble: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Sochaux

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Grenoble

A. Kalulu 88'

3/18/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 28Stade Auguste-Bonal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 151+ matches

Sochaux43%

×Draw28%

Grenoble29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SochauxExpected goals in this matchGrenoble

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.01

Sochaux

1.29

Grenoble

1.01

Sochaux creates 28% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 151 away

1.23

creates per match

0.93

1.08

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Sochaux

1.23

Grenoble

0.93

allows per match

Sochaux

1.08

Grenoble

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sochaux+0.00on par

Grenoble+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sochaux ↓

Grenoble →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sochaux or draw

71%

Sochaux or Grenoble

72%

Draw or Grenoble

57%

Winning margin

Sochaux wins by 2+

19%

Grenoble wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sochaux 1+ goals

72%

Sochaux 2+ goals

37%

Sochaux 3+ goals

14%

Grenoble 1+ goals

64%

Grenoble 2+ goals

27%

Grenoble 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sochaux (draw refunded)

60%

Grenoble (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sochaux at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.08 · 158 matches

Grenoble away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.35 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sochaux attack 1.23 + Grenoble defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Grenoble attack 0.93 + Sochaux defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sochaux scores more

43%

level

28%

Grenoble scores more

29%

Sochaux at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sochaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

80

S. Alvero

Sochaux · M

8.3

Match Events

18'

Manuel Perez

42'

Rassoul Ndiaye

50'

Brice Maubleu

55'

T. Mauricio← J. Dossou

55'

I. Sissoko← D. Le Tallec

61'

Pape Meissa Ba

71'

Abdoulie Sanyang

71'

F. Kanouté← R. Ndiaye

72'

Eliezer Mayenda← M. Doumbia

76'

O. Inikurogha← A. Sanyang

77'

A. Ndour← Y. Armougom

82'

Franck Kanouté

88'

A. Kalulu↳ T. Mauricio

89'

J. Jeno← S. Touray

90'

J. Correa← M. Perez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SochauxGrenoble

Overview

57%Possession43%

18Total Shots7

9Corners1

12Fouls22

Shots

18Total Shots7

4On Target3

9Off Target3

5Blocked1

14Inside Box5

4Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

451Total Passes354

368Accurate Passes269

82%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls22

2Yellow Cards4