Grenoble 1–3 Sochaux: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Grenoble

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Sochaux

J. Tell 1'

Y. Kitala 90+1'

T. Mauricio 87' (pen)

G. Weissbeck 31'

2/12/2022

Ligue 2 · Round 24Stade des Alpes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 152+ matches

Grenoble39%

×Draw30%

Sochaux31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrenobleExpected goals in this matchSochaux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.98

Grenoble

1.13

Sochaux

0.98

Grenoble creates 15% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 159 away

1.17

creates per match

0.99

0.97

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Grenoble

1.17

Sochaux

0.99

allows per match

Grenoble

0.97

Sochaux

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grenoble+0.00on par

Sochaux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grenoble ↓

Sochaux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Grenoble or draw

69%

Grenoble or Sochaux

70%

Draw or Sochaux

61%

Winning margin

Grenoble wins by 2+

16%

Sochaux wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Grenoble 1+ goals

68%

Grenoble 2+ goals

31%

Grenoble 3+ goals

11%

Sochaux 1+ goals

62%

Sochaux 2+ goals

26%

Sochaux 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Grenoble (draw refunded)

55%

Sochaux (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grenoble at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.97 · 152 matches

Sochaux away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.08 · 159 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grenoble attack 1.17 + Sochaux defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Sochaux attack 0.99 + Grenoble defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Grenoble scores more

39%

level

30%

Sochaux scores more

31%

Grenoble at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Grenoble will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

J. Tell

Grenoble · F

7.9

Match Events

1'

J. Tell

10'

Franck Bambock

24'

Yoric Ravet

31'

G. Weissbeck↳ A. Kalulu

42'

46'

46'

50'

52'

56'

67'

Steve Ambri← O. Thioune

69'

A. Belmonte← F. Bambock

83'

A. Gersbach← J. Gaspar

83'

A. Virginius← R. Ndiaye

84'

J. Correa← Y. Ravet

86'

Manuel Perez

87'

T. MauricioPenalty

90+1'

Y. Kitala↳ Steve Ambri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GrenobleSochaux

Overview

50%Possession50%

15Total Shots13

5Corners8

14Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots13

4On Target5

7Off Target5

4Blocked3

7Inside Box9

8Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

400Total Passes394

315Accurate Passes318

79%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

0Offsides3

Ligue 2: Grenoble 1–3 Sochaux

Sochaux beat Grenoble 3-1 in Ligue 2 on February 12, 2022.

Goals: J. Tell (1'), G. Weissbeck (31'), T. Mauricio (87' pen), Y. Kitala (90+1').

Grenoble controlled possession (50%) and registered 15 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stade des Alpes in Grenoble.

Grenoble vs Sochaux — Ligue 2 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Grenoble 1–3 Sochaux