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Sochaux vs Dijon — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sochaux
Sochaux
Preview
16:00
Dijon
Dijon
7/25/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
Big match
45%
Sochaux
model favours
45%29%26%
1–0
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sochaux45%
×Draw29%
Dijon26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sochaux
1.27
Dijon
0.90

Sochaux creates 41% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sochaux
1.86
Dijon
1.50

allows per match

Sochaux
0.29
Dijon
0.67

finishing

Sochaux+0.00on par
Dijon+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sochaux ↓

Dijon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sochaux or draw
74%
Sochaux or Dijon
71%
Draw or Dijon
55%

Winning margin

Sochaux wins by 2+
20%
Dijon wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sochaux 1+ goals
72%
Sochaux 2+ goals
36%
Sochaux 3+ goals
14%
Dijon 1+ goals
59%
Dijon 2+ goals
23%
Dijon 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sochaux (draw refunded)
63%
Dijon (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sochaux at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Dijon away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sochaux attack 1.86 + Dijon defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.27

Dijon attack 1.50 + Sochaux defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sochaux scores more
45%
level
29%
Dijon scores more
26%

Sochaux at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sochaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Sochaux
WWDWW
Dijon
WWDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sochaux face Dijon (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Sochaux hosting Dijon. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.