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Sochaux vs Dijon — Ligue 2 2018

Sochaux
Sochaux
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Dijon
Dijon
G. Weissbeck 51', 2'
R. Philippoteaux 78'
M. Le Bihan 58'
5/14/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 38Stade Auguste-Bonal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Sochaux43%
×Draw28%
Dijon29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sochaux
1.30
Dijon
1.00

Sochaux creates 30% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 54 away

creates per match

Sochaux
1.25
Dijon
1.07

allows per match

Sochaux
0.94
Dijon
1.35

finishing

Sochaux+0.00on par
Dijon+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sochaux ↓

Dijon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sochaux or draw
71%
Sochaux or Dijon
72%
Draw or Dijon
57%

Winning margin

Sochaux wins by 2+
20%
Dijon wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sochaux 1+ goals
73%
Sochaux 2+ goals
37%
Sochaux 3+ goals
14%
Dijon 1+ goals
63%
Dijon 2+ goals
26%
Dijon 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sochaux (draw refunded)
60%
Dijon (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sochaux at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.94 · 93 matches

Dijon away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sochaux attack 1.25 + Dijon defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.30

Dijon attack 1.07 + Sochaux defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sochaux scores more
43%
level
28%
Dijon scores more
29%

Sochaux at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sochaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
G. WeissbeckSochauxSochaux · M
9.0

Match Events

2'
G. Weissbeck↳ T. Mauricio
46'
Z. Touré← B. Ecuele Manga
51'
G. Weissbeck
58'
M. Le Bihan
62'
R. Ndiaye← Y. Kaabouni
62'
J. Lopy← O. Thioune
66'
M. Do Couto← A. Virginius
70'
C. Traoré← J. Pi
76'
M. Senaya← A. Ndour
77'
Y. Kitala← A. Kalulu
78'
R. Philippoteaux↳ A. Ngouyamsa
87'
Cheik Traoré
89'
M. Ahlinvi← V. Jacob

Possession

51%Sochaux

Shots

16Sochaux

Pass accuracy

50%Sochaux

Statistics

SochauxDijon
Overview
51%Possession49%
16Total Shots9
7Corners2
4Fouls5
Shots
16Total Shots9
9On Target2
6Off Target5
1Blocked2
11Inside Box5
5Outside Box4
Passing
51%Possession49%
391Total Passes376
326Accurate Passes315
83%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
0Saves7
Discipline
4Fouls5
0Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: Sochaux vs Dijon

Sochaux and Dijon drew 2-2 in Ligue 2 on May 14, 2022.

Goals: G. Weissbeck (2', 51'), M. Le Bihan (58'), R. Philippoteaux (78').

Sochaux controlled possession (51%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stade Auguste-Bonal in Montbéliard.