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Dijon vs Sochaux — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Dijon
Dijon
FT
1 – 2
Sochaux
Sochaux
7/2/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stade Léo Lagrange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dijon50%
×Draw24%
Sochaux26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dijon
1.67
Sochaux
1.13

Dijon creates 48% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Dijon
1.67
Sochaux
1.00

allows per match

Dijon
1.25
Sochaux
1.67

finishing

Dijon+0.00on par
Sochaux+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dijon ↓

Sochaux →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dijon or draw
74%
Dijon or Sochaux
76%
Draw or Sochaux
50%

Winning margin

Dijon wins by 2+
27%
Sochaux wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dijon 1+ goals
81%
Dijon 2+ goals
50%
Dijon 3+ goals
23%
Sochaux 1+ goals
68%
Sochaux 2+ goals
31%
Sochaux 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dijon (draw refunded)
66%
Sochaux (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dijon at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Sochaux away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dijon attack 1.67 + Sochaux defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sochaux attack 1.00 + Dijon defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dijon scores more
50%
level
24%
Sochaux scores more
26%

Dijon at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dijon 1 – 2 Sochaux

Sochaux beat Dijon 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Léo Lagrange in Besançon.