Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dijon vs Sochaux — Ligue 2 2018

Dijon
Dijon
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sochaux
Sochaux
M. Doumbia 55'
I. Sissoko 26'
9/10/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 8Stade Gaston-Gérard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Dijon41%
×Draw29%
Sochaux31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dijon
1.20
Sochaux
1.00

Dijon creates 20% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 95 away

creates per match

Dijon
1.31
Sochaux
1.03

allows per match

Dijon
0.98
Sochaux
1.08

finishing

Dijon+0.00on par
Sochaux+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dijon ↓

Sochaux →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dijon or draw
69%
Dijon or Sochaux
71%
Draw or Sochaux
59%

Winning margin

Dijon wins by 2+
17%
Sochaux wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dijon 1+ goals
70%
Dijon 2+ goals
34%
Dijon 3+ goals
12%
Sochaux 1+ goals
63%
Sochaux 2+ goals
26%
Sochaux 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dijon (draw refunded)
57%
Sochaux (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dijon at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.98 · 52 matches

Sochaux away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.08 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dijon attack 1.31 + Sochaux defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.20

Sochaux attack 1.03 + Dijon defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dijon scores more
41%
level
29%
Sochaux scores more
31%

Dijon at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
V. JacobDijonDijon · M
8.2

Match Events

14'
Abdallah Ndour
26'
I. Sissoko↳ J. Faussurier
35'
Cheik Traoré
45+3'
Y. Armougom← A. Ndour
55'
M. Doumbia↳ G. Weissbeck
63'
L. Deaux← J. Marié
63'
R. Assalé← L. Tchaouna
78'
W. Nassi Ouled Bentle← C. Traoré
78'
I. Camara← B. Soumaré
78'
O. Thioune← M. Le Bihan
81'
R. Pereira De Sa← T. Mauricio
82'
M. Do Couto← M. Doumbia
83'
H. Tebily← I. Sissoko
84'
Maxime Do Couto
90+4'
Senou Coulibaly
90+4'
Saad Agouzoul

Possession

54%Dijon

Shots

17Dijon

Pass accuracy

49%Dijon

Statistics

DijonSochaux
Overview
54%Possession46%
17Total Shots14
6Corners2
15Fouls11
Shots
17Total Shots14
3On Target6
9Off Target4
5Blocked4
12Inside Box8
5Outside Box6
Passing
54%Possession46%
505Total Passes445
412Accurate Passes372
82%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls11
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Dijon vs Sochaux

Sochaux beat Dijon 2-0 in Ligue 2 on September 10, 2022.

Goals: I. Sissoko (26'), M. Doumbia (55').

Dijon controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stade Gaston-Gérard in Dijon.